15 March 2022 Recent history is full of seminal events. The two World Wars and America's emergence as a global power, the Russian Revolution, the OPEC oil embargos, Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms (perestroika, glasnot, and detente), the collapse of the Soviet Union (and the end of the Cold War), and Deng Xiaoping's "Opening Up" modernisation all … Continue reading China-Russia Friendship: How “Eternal” Is It?
1 March 2022 The military situation on the ground following Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine remains fluid, and many outcomes are still feasible (including a few catastophic scenarios). In order to begin assessing the economic fallout of the invasion, I must make some assumptions. Even now, what seems apparent is Russian President Putin has made … Continue reading Ukraine: Global Implications
15 April 2021 The Russian ruble (RUB) -- traditionally a petro-currency -- has not benefited from the recent rise in oil prices. Indeed, during the recent bout of Emerging Market currency volatility -- provoked by a combination of rising US bond yields and problems in Turkey -- the Russian central bank (CBR) raised interest rates … Continue reading Russia: Not Rushin’ to Buy!
28 January 2021 Joe Biden is now the 46th President of the United States, and Anthony Blinken has been confirmed as the new Secretary of State. President Biden has promised substantive changes in American foreign policy, and initial Executive Orders indicate he will act on this pledge. To be sure, American international policy decisions are … Continue reading Biden’s Foreign Policy Reset: Market Impact