Since March, when the US Congress began considering Kevin Warsh's appointment as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, bond yields have surged 75 basis points. Initially, financial markets were concerned about Mr. Warsh's ability to resist inevitable pressure from POTUS47. In particular, would he take a dovish approach to controlling above-target inflation. These fears intensified after … Continue reading Bond Markets: Mr. Warsh’s Education
Category: USA
Strategy 2026: Smooth Sailing?
18 January 2026 I have returned recently from a lovely Christmas holiday in the USA. Indeed, I'm happy to report that despite America's political turmoil and divisiveness, families can still celebrate together (with minor exceptions)!! Regarding the US financial market outlook, I was struck by the universal sense of optimism. The consensus is the bull … Continue reading Strategy 2026: Smooth Sailing?
Gold: Debasement or Risk-On Rally?
19 October 2025 The price of gold has risen sharply during the past two years. More recently, Jerome Powell's August speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming -- where he signaled the Federal Reserve would begin lowering interest rates -- has turbocharged gold's ascent. Indeed, investors are considering whether the dramatic appreciation signals a flight to quality, … Continue reading Gold: Debasement or Risk-On Rally?
Trump 2.0: Tariffs, Trade, and the Dollar
25 September 2025 To be sure, financial markets have needed to react to a daily diet of consequential, and often quickly reversed, policy announcements during the early months of Trump 2.0. What has been consistent, however, has been the US dollar's depreciation: the greenback has fallen 10% this year. Indeed, many had expected the dollar … Continue reading Trump 2.0: Tariffs, Trade, and the Dollar