2 May 2023 Yes, I concede the Russian economy proved to be more resilient than I expected in 2022. Indeed, Russia's GDP contracted only 2.1% last year compared to my projection that the imposition of sanctions would result in a slump of at least 7%. Of course, one must question the current reliability of Russia's … Continue reading Russia: Recession May Continue into 2024
24 February 2023 The end of China's lockdown, signs global inflation is peaking, and the slower pace of US interest rate hikes have led investors to embrace the prospect of an economic "soft landing". Financial market optimism has been particularly evident in Europe. Indeed, collapsing natural gas prices have led to a 10% rally in … Continue reading Europe: Ukraine Invasion — A Year On
31 May 2022 In my March 2019 blog entitled "India: Long Growth Runway Still Lies Ahead", I suggested India may enjoy faster economic growth than all other large economies during the next decade, including China. The following Chart indicates the IMF now shares this appraisal, as India's long-term potential GDP exceeds all other countries (except … Continue reading India: Geopolitics, Climate, and Growth Risks
12 May 2022 In my 2022 Strategy blog entitled "Avoiding Stagflation?" (published 1 December 2021), I suggested global financial market volatility was poised to rise, and equity and bond returns would be negative. On a relative basis, however, I made the case for an outperformance of European markets. Much has happened during the past six … Continue reading European Markets: Intact or In Tatters?