20 February 2026 As long ago as my 2019 blog "India: Long Growth Runway Ahead", I outlined why India's economy and financial markets would outperform China in the coming decade. And, indeed, India has enjoyed the strongest GDP growth amongst all major economies during the past 10 years (Chart below). As a result, India became [...]
Tag: inflation
Strategy 2026: Smooth Sailing?
I have returned recently from a lovely Christmas holiday in the USA. Indeed, I'm happy to report that despite America's political turmoil and divisiveness, families can still celebrate together (with minor exceptions)!! Regarding the US financial market outlook, I was struck by the universal sense of optimism. The consensus is the bull market will widen [...]
Trump Tariffs: Common Sense is Not So Common
13 April 2025 In his inaugural speech, President Trump pledged a "revolution of common sense". However, as French Enlightenment philospher Voltaire warned, "common sense is not so common". In his recent so-called Liberation Day presentation, Mr. Trump combined a misreading of history and poor economic analysis; unveiling "reciprocal" tariffs on the nation's trading partners. The [...]
Trump 2.0 Tariffs: Everyone Loses
3 February 2025 Until now, financial markets have adopted a complacent "wait and see" approach when considering the prospects for the Trump 2.0 trade policy. However, the hope the new Administration's bark would be worse than its bite has been dashed with the imposition of high tariffs on the nation's three largest trading partners. Markets [...]