18 January 2026 I have returned recently from a lovely Christmas holiday in the USA. Indeed, I'm happy to report that despite America's political turmoil and divisiveness, families can still celebrate together (with minor exceptions)!! Regarding the US financial market outlook, I was struck by the universal sense of optimism. The consensus is the bull … Continue reading Strategy 2026: Smooth Sailing?
13 April 2025 In his inaugural speech, President Trump pledged a "revolution of common sense". However, as French Enlightenment philospher Voltaire warned, "common sense is not so common". In his recent so-called Liberation Day presentation, Mr. Trump combined a misreading of history and poor economic analysis; unveiling "reciprocal" tariffs on the nation's trading partners. The … Continue reading Trump Tariffs: Common Sense is Not So Common
3 February 2025 Until now, financial markets have adopted a complacent "wait and see" approach when considering the prospects for the Trump 2.0 trade policy. However, the hope the new Administration's bark would be worse than its bite has been dashed with the imposition of high tariffs on the nation's three largest trading partners. Markets … Continue reading Trump 2.0 Tariffs: Everyone Loses
24 January 2025 Remarkably, even though the US Federal Reserve has lowered the Fed funds rate by 100bp since last September, US bond yields have risen sharply (roughly 100bp). Market commentators have offered a wide range of explanations for this unusual development. As the incoming Administration has signalled a significant shift in economic strategy, investors … Continue reading Bond Yields Rising: Don’t Be Confused