11 October 2018 After years of describing NAFTA as "the worst trade deal in history", the Trump Administration along with Canada and Mexico signed the US Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA). The White House, naturally, hails the accord as a historic triumph for American workers and farmers. Critics view the deal as a simple rebranding of [...]
10 August 2018 In the wake of the turmoil in Turkey, markets are considering which Emerging Market currencies potentially could be vulnerable if a broader EM contagion develops. A couple of my favourite Charts may provide some clues. What has provoked the dramatic run on the Turkish lira? Chart 1 illustrates the Turkish currency was [...]
4 April 2018 Enjoy the podcast in which I review how well our 2018 strategic themes are playing out, and take a look athe the rest of the year. Inflation, populism, and protectionism were the key Q1 market drivers, even as the US tax reform boosted American corporate earnings significantly. Personnel changes at the White [...]
15 March 2018 Turkey has a history of "boom-bust" economic cycles. And, while Turkey enjoyed an impressive 7% GDP gain in 2017, the telltale signs of overheating again have emerged. In February 2018, for instance, inflation stood at 10.3% (granted, a bit lower than previous months), double the central bank's (CBRT) 5% target. And, core [...]