6 February 2019 During these Winter months, my breakfast typically consists of a big, steaming bowl of porridge! As in the Goldilocks fairy tale, however, getting the recipe right requires some experimentation. Often the same is true of monetary policy decision-making. In search of a soft landing for the US economy -- neither too hot, [...]
23 January 2019 One of the unintended, albeit unsurprising, consequences of the current period of ultra-loose monetary conditions has been the extraordinary buildup in debt worldwide. The top Chart illustrates that during the previous business cycle global debt had remained stable at what seemed an elevated level of 80% of GDP. In the aftermath of [...]
10 January 2019 Happy New Year! I am back at work for the first time since releasing my blog in mid-December. Did I miss anything??!! In a word, it's been crazy! In September, we published our 2019 Global Strategy Outlook entitled "Turning (Even More) Defensive", in which we warned that the year ahead would be [...]
16 December 2018 Following the Brexit debate often reminds me of cartoon characters who, prior to proceeding to their destination, frantically spin their wheels without actually moving. Such has been the case for much of 2018. After the Parliamentary drama of the past few weeks, however, issues have become clearer and options have narrowed. In [...]