7 March 2021 We have all marvelled at the dramatic expansion of the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet following both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic. And, the Chart illustrates quantitative easing (QE) policies have had a similar impact on the asset holdings of central banks worldwide (thanks to Yardeni Research for … Continue reading Global Money: Will Boom Go Bust?
28 February 2021 There's a whiff of inflation in the air: commodities are soaring, bond yields are rising, and yield curves are steepening. And, while these trends actually began last Summer (and despite Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's reassuring comments in Congress), equity market volatility is increasing. In the period ahead, financial markets will confront several … Continue reading Will Inflation End the Party?
18 February 2021 Pundits are projecting the onset of the next Commodity Supercycle. To be sure, prices of primary products have spiked dramatically in the past year, and many commodity-linked currencies have begun to rally. The Brazilian Real, however, has been noticeably absent, despite the country's heavy reliance on this sector (Chart above). Unfortunately, the … Continue reading Brazil: Riding the Commodity Wave?
9 February 2021 China was the only major country to record economic growth in 2020, with GDP expanding 2.3%. Indeed, following three consecutive quarters of expansion, national output is already 6.5% above pre-Covid levels. As we approach Chinese New Year, the IMF optimistically projects 8.1% GDP growth during the year of the Ox. Likewise, I … Continue reading China: Becoming World’s Biggest Economy?