15 April 2021 The Russian ruble (RUB) -- traditionally a petro-currency -- has not benefited from the recent rise in oil prices. Indeed, during the recent bout of Emerging Market currency volatility -- provoked by a combination of rising US bond yields and problems in Turkey -- the Russian central bank (CBR) raised interest rates … Continue reading Russia: Not Rushin’ to Buy!
8 April 2021 In the climate model I unveiled last year, I rated 90 countries' vulnerability to climate change. The United States ranked a disappointing #20 (my blog "Climate Change: Who's Preparing, Who's Not" can found be on my website). President Biden intends to change that. Indeed, spending to mitigate the impact of rising global … Continue reading Biden’s Climate Plan: Yes We Can, We Must!
26 March 2021 President Erdogan's decision to sack Turkey's central bank governor Naci Agbal last week following the CBRT's decision to raise interest rates 200bp has increased volatility in EM currency markets. Is this just the latest episode of Turkish political intrigue? Alternatively, given both Brazil and Russia also lifted key rates, has a more … Continue reading Turkey: Systemic Risk or Just One Bad Apple?
16 March 2021 In the past week, the Biden Adminstration passed its historic American Rescue Plan (ARP) and UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveiled his budgetary program for the coming years. The message from both is clear, the immediate priority is to provide Covid-related relief to household and businesses. Concerns about rising public sector debt would … Continue reading Global Fiscal Policy: Keep the Pedal to the Metal