Brazil: Riding the Commodity Wave?

18 February 2021 Pundits are projecting the onset of the next Commodity Supercycle. To be sure, prices of primary products have spiked dramatically in the past year, and many commodity-linked currencies have begun to rally. The Brazilian Real, however, has been noticeably absent, despite the country's heavy reliance on this sector (Chart above). Unfortunately, the [...]

Turkey: Can Damaged Credibility Be Restored?

15 March 2018 Turkey has a history of  "boom-bust" economic cycles.  And, while Turkey enjoyed an impressive 7% GDP gain in 2017, the telltale signs of overheating again have emerged.  In February 2018, for instance, inflation stood at 10.3% (granted, a bit lower than previous months), double the central bank's (CBRT) 5% target.  And, core [...]