20 February 2026 As long ago as my 2019 blog "India: Long Growth Runway Ahead", I outlined why India's economy and financial markets would outperform China in the coming decade. And, indeed, India has enjoyed the strongest GDP growth amongst all major economies during the past 10 years (Chart below). As a result, India became [...]
Tag: tariffs
China: Beggar-thy-Neighbor Policy Creates Risks
Even if one doesn't trust China's data, there's no doubt the economy has proved surprisingly resilient, despite the Trump 2.0 tariffs. And, the outcome of recent Sino-US trade negotiations indicate they enjoy considerable leverage in future talks, given America's current dependence on Chinese rare earth materials. As the Year of the Horse approaches, therefore, is [...]
Strategy 2026: Smooth Sailing?
I have returned recently from a lovely Christmas holiday in the USA. Indeed, I'm happy to report that despite America's political turmoil and divisiveness, families can still celebrate together (with minor exceptions)!! Regarding the US financial market outlook, I was struck by the universal sense of optimism. The consensus is the bull market will widen [...]
Emerging Markets: Coping with Trump 2.0
2 November 2025 Potus 47 now has returned from his Asian visit: unsurprisingly using superlatives to describe the trade agreements reached with Japan, Korea, and China. Upon taking office, Mr. Trump pledged to impose high tariffs against countries with large bilateral trade imbalances, espcially those conducting "unfair" trade practices with the USA. Potus 47 now [...]