China: Beggar-thy-Neighbor Policy Creates Risks

Even if one doesn't trust China's data, there's no doubt the economy has proved surprisingly resilient, despite the Trump 2.0 tariffs. And, the outcome of recent Sino-US trade negotiations indicate they enjoy considerable leverage in future talks, given America's current dependence on Chinese rare earth materials. As the Year of the Horse approaches, therefore, is [...]

China: Tiger Needs a Red Packet

6 February 2022 During the past two Covid-strickened years, China's economic growth has outperformed global activity. Indeed, while output in developed nations contracted nearly 5% in 2020, the Chinese economy actually gained 2%. Likewise, China's 8% recovery in 2021 outpaced the 5% rebound in the world's richer countries. Behind the headlines, however, the news has [...]

Sino-US Trade: First Step on a Long Journey

20 January 2020 A comprehensive trade agreement between the United States and China was never a realistic possibility: these take years of skillful negotiations to conclude. To be sure, the recently-signed plan has many shortcomings. Predictably, the deal fails to address many of the most contentious issues, e.g. state subsidies and cyber-security. Likewise, the dispute [...]

China: Trade Deal Won’t End Slowdown

12 January 2020 The prospect that this week the USA and China will sign Phase 1 of a trade deal has buoyed financial markets. Of course, I will assess the impact of the agreement as details emerge. However, initial optimism is warranted if the plan represents the first step towards a comprehensive trade agreement (even [...]