12 May 2022 In my 2022 Strategy blog entitled "Avoiding Stagflation?" (published 1 December 2021), I suggested global financial market volatility was poised to rise, and equity and bond returns would be negative. On a relative basis, however, I made the case for an outperformance of European markets. Much has happened during the past six … Continue reading European Markets: Intact or In Tatters?
1 March 2022 The military situation on the ground following Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine remains fluid, and many outcomes are still feasible (including a few catastophic scenarios). In order to begin assessing the economic fallout of the invasion, I must make some assumptions. Even now, what seems apparent is Russian President Putin has made … Continue reading Ukraine: Global Implications
2 May 2021 Asia has a vital role to play in mitigating the global risks of climate change. Indeed, the region accounts for over 50% of world-wide CO2 emissions (and 44% of energy consumption). Of course, China and India are the world's #1 and #3 GHG emitters. These two giants are responsible for 70% of … Continue reading Asia: Urgent Climate Action to Prevent Inequality
15 April 2021 The Russian ruble (RUB) -- traditionally a petro-currency -- has not benefited from the recent rise in oil prices. Indeed, during the recent bout of Emerging Market currency volatility -- provoked by a combination of rising US bond yields and problems in Turkey -- the Russian central bank (CBR) raised interest rates … Continue reading Russia: Not Rushin’ to Buy!