China: Trade Deal Won’t End Slowdown

12 January 2020 The prospect that this week the USA and China will sign Phase 1 of a trade deal has buoyed financial markets. Of course, I will assess the impact of the agreement as details emerge. However, initial optimism is warranted if the plan represents the first step towards a comprehensive trade agreement (even [...]

Avoiding the Potholes Ahead

12 July 2019 Global equity markets are at (or approaching) all-time highs. What's not to like? In particular, the US market has been buoyed by the Sino-US trade truce achieved at the Tokyo G20 meeting, the prospect of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and solid employment gains. Indeed, our year-end 2019 S&P 500 target of [...]

Turkey: Boom, Bust, What Comes Next?

22 February 2019 Last year's Turkish financial market crisis emanated from the confluence of several domestic and international factors. To be sure, Turkey is no stranger to boom-bust economic cycles.  And, fueled by overly expansive macroeconomic policies, the Turkish economy was overheating and inflation rising sharply by mid-2018.  Against this already challenging backdrop, the Erdogan [...]

Fed Pauses: In Search of a Soft Landing

6 February 2019 During these Winter months,  my breakfast typically consists of a big, steaming bowl of porridge! As in the Goldilocks fairy tale, however, getting the recipe right requires some experimentation. Often the same is true of monetary policy decision-making. In search of a soft landing for the US economy -- neither too hot, [...]