Brazil: Riding the Commodity Wave?

18 February 2021 Pundits are projecting the onset of the next Commodity Supercycle. To be sure, prices of primary products have spiked dramatically in the past year, and many commodity-linked currencies have begun to rally. The Brazilian Real, however, has been noticeably absent, despite the country's heavy reliance on this sector (Chart above). Unfortunately, the [...]

EM Contagion: Who’s Next??!!

10 August 2018 In the wake of the turmoil in Turkey, markets are considering which Emerging Market currencies potentially could be vulnerable if a broader EM contagion develops.  A couple of my favourite Charts may provide some clues. What has provoked the dramatic run on the Turkish lira?  Chart 1 illustrates the Turkish currency  was [...]