In a blog six years ago, I suggested China's growth slowdown had just begun. I indicated the headwinds emanating from the property crisis, shrinking population, weak productivity growth, debt deleveraging, and the rebalancing towards consumer-led activity would slow China's long-term GDP growth potential towards 3.5% to 4%. In the interim, most investors and pundits have [...]
Tag: pboc
China: Slowdown Just Beginning
25 October 2018 We all know China's economy is slowing. Indeed, markets and pundits agonise when GDP results fractionally dip below expectations, as highlighted by the spike in market volatility following the recent news Chinese output advanced "only" 6.5% during Q2 2018 (compared to the 6.6% forecast). To be sure, such results seem disappointing, as [...]