In an earlier blog "Iran: Assessing the Economic Fallout", I identified Asia as the most vulnerable region to the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequently, financial markets have reflected these risks. Indeed, countries from Pakistan to the Philippines have taken recent measures to cope with the economic fallout. Now, [...]
Tag: natural gas
Iran War: Assessing the Economic Fallout
The US-Israeli attacks on Iran, and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have sent oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel. With the war now two weeks old, I consider some of the economic and financial market fallout. As the consequences will increase the longer the conflict continues, the failure of the Trump [...]
Russia: Recession May Continue into 2024
2 May 2023 Yes, I concede the Russian economy proved to be more resilient than I expected in 2022. Indeed, Russia's GDP contracted only 2.1% last year compared to my projection that the imposition of sanctions would result in a slump of at least 7%. Of course, one must question the current reliability of Russia's [...]
Europe: Ukraine Invasion — A Year On
24 February 2023 The end of China's lockdown, signs global inflation is peaking, and the slower pace of US interest rate hikes have led investors to embrace the prospect of an economic "soft landing". Financial market optimism has been particularly evident in Europe. Indeed, collapsing natural gas prices have led to a 10% rally in [...]