23 January 2019 One of the unintended, albeit unsurprising, consequences of the current period of ultra-loose monetary conditions has been the extraordinary buildup in debt worldwide. The top Chart illustrates that during the previous business cycle global debt had remained stable at what seemed an elevated level of 80% of GDP. In the aftermath of … Continue reading Will the Debt Bubble Burst in 2019?
10 January 2019 Happy New Year! I am back at work for the first time since releasing my blog in mid-December. Did I miss anything??!! In a word, it's been crazy! In September, we published our 2019 Global Strategy Outlook entitled "Turning (Even More) Defensive", in which we warned that the year ahead would be … Continue reading Heading for Global Recession in 2019?
11 October 2018 After years of describing NAFTA as "the worst trade deal in history", the Trump Administration along with Canada and Mexico signed the US Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA). The White House, naturally, hails the accord as a historic triumph for American workers and farmers. Critics view the deal as a simple rebranding of … Continue reading After USMCA, Taking Aim at China?
President Trump will use his Asia trip to discuss America's swollen trade deficits with the region. Trade imbalances are caused by macro factors: America saves too little, Asia saves too much. This Chart, however, does indicate that America's penetration of some key Asian markets is far lower than their access to the US market. China … Continue reading Can Trump Pry Open Asian Markets?