Asia has been identified correctly as the most vulnerable region to both the Iran War and Trump 2.0 tariffs. Overall, recent financial market performance has reflected these risks (next Chart). Indeed, equities in most Asian countries have lagged global and US indices, and most regional currencies have weakened. Perhaps surprisingly, however, Japan has been an … Continue reading Japan: Resilient, But For How Long?
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Asia 2025: Top Trade War Target
29 April 2025 Despite expressing grievances with Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, Asia is likely to emerge as the top target of the Trump trade war. Indeed, on the "Liberation Day" list, 6 out of the 10 highest tariffs would be imposed on Asian nations. To a degree, this is understandable. Nine of 15 … Continue reading Asia 2025: Top Trade War Target
Global Government Debt: Balloon Still Expanding
11 June 2024 Government efforts to mitigate the economic consequences of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic have led to surging government debt. In the United States, for instance, public sector liabilities are approaching levels not seen before in peacetime (Chart above). And, while I will discuss important differences between countries and … Continue reading Global Government Debt: Balloon Still Expanding
Strategy 2024: Searching for a Soft Landing
13 December 2023 Happy Holidays! Another challenging year is coming to a close. Yes, the US (and global) economy defied expectations of recession. True, the S&P 500 has recorded a 20% gain. However, the rally was narrow: only technology outperformed the market. Indeed, of the 8 market sub-sectors, only tech, industrials, and financials posted positive … Continue reading Strategy 2024: Searching for a Soft Landing