As expected, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates 25bp to 1.25% at its September meeting. The decision reflects the resilience of the Japanese economy, and the ongoing inflation risk emanating from the conflict in the Middle East. However, life is likely to become more complicated for the BOJ. Specifically, I expect economic growth … Continue reading BOJ: Deflation Legacy = Continued Caution
Tag: japan
Japan: Resilient, But For How Long?
5 May 2026 Asia has been identified correctly as the most vulnerable region to both the Iran War and Trump 2.0 tariffs. Overall, recent financial market performance has reflected these risks (next Chart). Indeed, equities in most Asian countries have lagged global and US indices, and most regional currencies have weakened. Perhaps surprisingly, however, Japan … Continue reading Japan: Resilient, But For How Long?
Asia 2025: Top Trade War Target
29 April 2025 Despite expressing grievances with Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, Asia is likely to emerge as the top target of the Trump trade war. Indeed, on the "Liberation Day" list, 6 out of the 10 highest tariffs would be imposed on Asian nations. To a degree, this is understandable. Nine of 15 … Continue reading Asia 2025: Top Trade War Target
Global Government Debt: Balloon Still Expanding
11 June 2024 Government efforts to mitigate the economic consequences of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic have led to surging government debt. In the United States, for instance, public sector liabilities are approaching levels not seen before in peacetime (Chart above). And, while I will discuss important differences between countries and … Continue reading Global Government Debt: Balloon Still Expanding