As expected, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates 25bp to 1.25% at its September meeting. The decision reflects the resilience of the Japanese economy, and the ongoing inflation risk emanating from the conflict in the Middle East. However, life is likely to become more complicated for the BOJ. Specifically, I expect economic growth … Continue reading BOJ: Deflation Legacy = Continued Caution
Tag: iran
Japan: Resilient, But For How Long?
5 May 2026 Asia has been identified correctly as the most vulnerable region to both the Iran War and Trump 2.0 tariffs. Overall, recent financial market performance has reflected these risks (next Chart). Indeed, equities in most Asian countries have lagged global and US indices, and most regional currencies have weakened. Perhaps surprisingly, however, Japan … Continue reading Japan: Resilient, But For How Long?
Asia: Hormuz — Energy Security & Transition
7 April 2026 In an earlier blog "Iran: Assessing the Economic Fallout", I identified Asia as the most vulnerable region to the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequently, financial markets have reflected these risks. Indeed, countries from Pakistan to the Philippines have taken recent measures to cope with the … Continue reading Asia: Hormuz — Energy Security & Transition
Iran War: Assessing the Economic Fallout
13 March 2026 The US-Israeli attacks on Iran, and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have sent oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel. With the war now two weeks old, I consider some of the economic and financial market fallout. As the consequences will increase the longer the conflict continues, the failure … Continue reading Iran War: Assessing the Economic Fallout