18 February 2021 Pundits are projecting the onset of the next Commodity Supercycle. To be sure, prices of primary products have spiked dramatically in the past year, and many commodity-linked currencies have begun to rally. The Brazilian Real, however, has been noticeably absent, despite the country's heavy reliance on this sector (Chart above). Unfortunately, the [...]
11 February 2020 Since the election in May, India's GDP growth has decelerated sharply: advancing only 4.5% in Q3 2019 compared to 7.3% in 2018. Does this sharp slowdown in economic activity simply reflect short-term volatility or is something more ominous going on? Identifying the sources of the current weakness will help answer this question. [...]
21 March 2019 At its March meeting, the US Federal Reserve signaled it would keep interest rates unchanged in 2019. In a similar fashion, the European Central Bank (ECB) at its recent gathering signaled interest rate hikes will be delayed until next year, and additional monetary support was forthcoming. But, that's not the end of [...]
22 February 2019 Last year's Turkish financial market crisis emanated from the confluence of several domestic and international factors. To be sure, Turkey is no stranger to boom-bust economic cycles. And, fueled by overly expansive macroeconomic policies, the Turkish economy was overheating and inflation rising sharply by mid-2018. Against this already challenging backdrop, the Erdogan [...]