In an earlier blog "Iran: Assessing the Economic Fallout", I identified Asia as the most vulnerable region to the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequently, financial markets have reflected these risks. Indeed, countries from Pakistan to the Philippines have taken recent measures to cope with the economic fallout. Now, [...]
Tag: gdp
China 2025: Prepared for Trump 2.0?
12 January 2025 How the Sino-American geopolitical relationship evolves during the second Trump presidency may prove to be the key economic and financial market issue in 2025 and beyond. To be sure, the incoming Administration's strategy is still evolving. Pundits consider which of the so-called "C" policy options Mr. Trump will implement, and what the [...]
Election 2024 Edition #4: It’s the Economy…..
28 October 2024 The US Presidential election is in nearly here, at last. In recent weeks, we have discussed key topics receiving insufficient attention during the bruising campaign: looming fiscal crises, international trade policy, and climate change. In 1992, James Carville famously reminded us the economy is usually the most important determinant of American election [...]
Japan: Now For the Hard Part
28 March 2024 In the past week, two important things happened in Japan. First of all, the Nikkei stock market index hit an all-time high; finally, eclipsing the previous record established 35 years ago. Following decades of underperformance, Japanese equities have left US stocks in the dust during the past two years. Meanwhile, the Bank [...]