I have returned recently from a lovely Christmas holiday in the USA. Indeed, I'm happy to report that despite America's political turmoil and divisiveness, families can still celebrate together (with minor exceptions)!! Regarding the US financial market outlook, I was struck by the universal sense of optimism. The consensus is the bull market will widen [...]
Tag: federal reserve
Gold: Debasement or Risk-On Rally?
The price of gold has risen sharply during the past two years. More recently, Jerome Powell's August speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming -- where he signaled the Federal Reserve would begin lowering interest rates -- has turbocharged gold's ascent. Indeed, investors are considering whether the dramatic appreciation signals a flight to quality, reflecting a widespread [...]
Trump 2.0: Tariffs, Trade, and the Dollar
25 September 2025 To be sure, financial markets have needed to react to a daily diet of consequential, and often quickly reversed, policy announcements during the early months of Trump 2.0. What has been consistent, however, has been the US dollar's depreciation: the greenback has fallen 10% this year. Indeed, many had expected the dollar [...]
Global Strategy Update: Feeling Liberated Yet?
5 September 2025 Yes, the first eight months of 2025 have been a wild ride. However, the financial market reaction has been quite predictable; collapsing after "Liberation Day", and rebounding once outcomes have proven to be less damaging than announced. As Autumn approaches, the policy horizon appears a little less eventful, although key trade talks [...]