11 June 2024 Government efforts to mitigate the economic consequences of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic have led to surging government debt. In the United States, for instance, public sector liabilities are approaching levels not seen before in peacetime (Chart above). And, while I will discuss important differences between countries and [...]
13 December 2023 Happy Holidays! Another challenging year is coming to a close. Yes, the US (and global) economy defied expectations of recession. True, the S&P 500 has recorded a 20% gain. However, the rally was narrow: only technology outperformed the market. Indeed, of the 8 market sub-sectors, only tech, industrials, and financials posted positive [...]
15 October 2023 Once admired as Europe's growth engine, Germany is now being identified as the region's "sick economy". Indeed, Germany's post-Covid recovery has lagged far behind the world's other advanced countries (Chart below). And, the nation's underperformance pre-dates the pandemic. What lies behind Germany's growth malaise, and can Europe's "Sick Man" be cured? To [...]
24 February 2023 The end of China's lockdown, signs global inflation is peaking, and the slower pace of US interest rate hikes have led investors to embrace the prospect of an economic "soft landing". Financial market optimism has been particularly evident in Europe. Indeed, collapsing natural gas prices have led to a 10% rally in [...]