The price of gold has risen sharply during the past two years. More recently, Jerome Powell's August speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming -- where he signaled the Federal Reserve would begin lowering interest rates -- has turbocharged gold's ascent. Indeed, investors are considering whether the dramatic appreciation signals a flight to quality, reflecting a widespread [...]
Tag: ecb
Global Strategy Update: Feeling Liberated Yet?
5 September 2025 Yes, the first eight months of 2025 have been a wild ride. However, the financial market reaction has been quite predictable; collapsing after "Liberation Day", and rebounding once outcomes have proven to be less damaging than announced. As Autumn approaches, the policy horizon appears a little less eventful, although key trade talks [...]
Strategy 2025: Pivoting from Trump 2.0 Trades?
12 December 2024 In my Strategy 2024 blog entitled "Powell Pivot: What Could Go Wrong or Right?", I suggested global financial markets had entered a cyclical sweet spot. Specifically, the combination of steady (if uneven) global growth, declining inflation, and easing monetary conditions pointed to higher equity market valuations. Indeed, even my bullish S&P 500 [...]
Can Europe Surprise? Only With Reforms
20 February 2024 Is Europe in secular decline? If so, can it be halted? Since as recently as 1990, the region's share of global GDP has declined from 24% to 14%. Even compared to other advanced economies, Europe has lost ground. Indeed, since 2005 European GDP growth has trailed the USA by 0.7% annually (the [...]