20 February 2026 As long ago as my 2019 blog "India: Long Growth Runway Ahead", I outlined why India's economy and financial markets would outperform China in the coming decade. And, indeed, India has enjoyed the strongest GDP growth amongst all major economies during the past 10 years (Chart below). As a result, India became [...]
Tag: debt
China: Beggar-thy-Neighbor Policy Creates Risks
Even if one doesn't trust China's data, there's no doubt the economy has proved surprisingly resilient, despite the Trump 2.0 tariffs. And, the outcome of recent Sino-US trade negotiations indicate they enjoy considerable leverage in future talks, given America's current dependence on Chinese rare earth materials. As the Year of the Horse approaches, therefore, is [...]
Trump 2.0: Tariffs, Trade, and the Dollar
25 September 2025 To be sure, financial markets have needed to react to a daily diet of consequential, and often quickly reversed, policy announcements during the early months of Trump 2.0. What has been consistent, however, has been the US dollar's depreciation: the greenback has fallen 10% this year. Indeed, many had expected the dollar [...]
Bond Yields Rising: Don’t Be Confused
24 January 2025 Remarkably, even though the US Federal Reserve has lowered the Fed funds rate by 100bp since last September, US bond yields have risen sharply (roughly 100bp). Market commentators have offered a wide range of explanations for this unusual development. As the incoming Administration has signalled a significant shift in economic strategy, investors [...]