25 November 2018 The European economy surged between mid-2016 and the end of last year -- expanding at an impressive 3% annual clip during this interval. This year has been quite a different story, as growth has consistently disappointed: indeed, GDP advanced a meagre 0.8% (annual rate) during the third quarter of 2018. There are … Continue reading Europe: Slipping Towards Recession?
19 September 2018 As analysts return from summer holidays, they tend to extend their earnings forecasts into the next year. In this spirit, I am casting my strategic gaze into 2019 as well. In order to set the stage, a brief review of our 2018 strategic themes may be helpful. In our December essay "Aging … Continue reading Strategy 2019: Turning (Even More) Defensive!
9 July 2019 Has the impetus behind European reform, so evident following French President Macron's victory last year, now stalled? The recent Italian election result illustrates that the appeal of populist remedies to Europe's ills has not receded, and Euro-scepticism remains widespread. The challenge remains for Europe's mainstream national leaders, along with the EU institutions … Continue reading EU Reform: Missing Golden Opportunity?
6 June 2018 As a reminder that populist sentiment in Europe has not disappeared, Italy's March election has finally produced an anti-establishment coalition between the Lega and the Five Star Movement (M5S), which appears willing to at least consider leaving the European Union as a remedy for the nation's economic ills. On one level this … Continue reading Italy: Growth Not Quitaly is the Remedy