US Tax Reform: Panacea or a Risk too Far?

2 December 2017 In a swanky Washington restaurant in 1974, economist Arthur Laffer presented Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld (future VP and US Secretary of Defence) a doodle on the back of a napkin.  What appeared was a diagram of the now infamous “Laffer Curve”.  The graph depicts the relationship between tax rates and tax [...]

Do Markets Believe Central Banks?

22 October 2017 Investors appear convinced that stimulative G-7 monetary policies lie behind the markets’ record-setting performance.  To be sure, that was the case between 2009 and 2015.  During the past three years, however, I believe the impact of monetary policy has been quite neutral, the key driver of markets more recently has shifted from [...]

US Fiscal Challenge: Entitlement Reform Key to Long Term Sustainability

  The Trump agenda fiscal agenda has focused on tax reform, and especially the scope for cutting taxes.  However, the esteemed Brookings Institute reminds us that despite the recent  sharp declines  in the US Federal government deficit, the USA confronts formidable fiscal challenges over the medium term.  Eventually, the growth in American entitlement spending will [...]