20 March 2020 Initial data from China indicate the economic impact of the Coronavirus and efforts to prevent its spread will be significant. I will make some preliminary global economic projections, although they come with a greater degree of uncertainty than normal. Perhaps more importantly, I will set out some guideposts about how to assess … Continue reading Covid-19: Don’t Suffer a Lack of Imagination
16 March 2020 Global central banks have announced additional emergency stimulus measures. In particular, the US Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 100 basis point, which now stands near zero. In addition, the Fed will resume aggressively its quantitative easing program. During the Global Financial Crisis global markets were reassured by such assertive policy … Continue reading Covid-19: Central Banks Fail to Bring Comfort
13 March 2020 The Covid-19 pandemic appears to be moving into a new phase. While the response differs between countries, most governments are transitioning from the contaiment phase towards focusing efforts on delaying the spread of the disease. This strategy hopes to lower the peak number of infections. The plan seeks to buy time; thereby, … Continue reading Covid-19: Temporary Maybe, But Painful Shock
12 March 2020 The US imposed a travel ban with Europe. The UK is transitioning from the from the containment to delay phase of dealing with the spread of the Coronavirus. However, major differences exist in the level of testing between countries. And, there's a strong correlation between testing and discovery of infected cases. If … Continue reading Covid-19: US Lags on Testing