26 September 2017 Despite Europe’s recent economic upswing, Germany’s election result provides a stark reminder of the region’s political discontent in the aftermath of the Euro crisis, protracted unemployment, and increasing income inequality. Following the disappointing elections, can Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron produce the domestic and EU reforms needed to produce European prosperity? … Continue reading European Politics: Berlin, Florence & Brexit
3 September 2017 Welcome to the launch of what will be a regular strategy review. Macro-themes have dominated market moves, especially following the Brexit referendum and the US and French elections. With the Trump Presidency entering a potentially decisive six months, I believe this will remain true during the year ahead. I am a believer … Continue reading Investment Strategy: Next 6 Months are Key for Trump Presidency
1 August 2017 The recent release of second quarter GDP data had something for everyone. For the post-Brexit sceptics, the meagre 0.3% gain (following a similarly paltry advance in Q1) confirmed the economic recovery was faltering. Recently, weak consumer spending has been a major headwind, resulting from modest income growth and higher prices following sterling’s … Continue reading UK: Consumer Weakness Will Persist For Years, Not a Few Quarters
22 June 2017 The Conservative Party’s failure to gain a majority of Parliamentary seats in the June 8 snap election has shifted the landscape on key policy issues. In particular, Prime Minister Teresa May had asked the British electorate for a mandate to adopt an aggressive stance in upcoming Brexit negotiations, including walking away if … Continue reading UK: Brexit — The Clock is Ticking, Loudly