15 March 2018 Turkey has a history of "boom-bust" economic cycles. And, while Turkey enjoyed an impressive 7% GDP gain in 2017, the telltale signs of overheating again have emerged. In February 2018, for instance, inflation stood at 10.3% (granted, a bit lower than previous months), double the central bank's (CBRT) 5% target. And, core [...]
1 March 2018 Emerging Market investing is a lot more complicated than it used to be -- and not just because it is difficult to replicate last year's stellar performance. Prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), EM's superior growth prospects garnered investors' attention. In addition, EM growth and inflation cycles tended to be in [...]
4 February 2018 In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis followed by Europe's Sovereign Debt Crisis, the Swiss franc (CHF) appreciated sharply (see top Chart), reflecting its traditional role as a safe haven. Confronting considerable deflationary risks the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abandoned its policy aimed at setting a floor for the exchange rate [...]
2 November 2017 Despite the flare up of dangerous geopolitical risks, Asian assets have performed exceptionally well in 2017. Indeed, after years of underperformance, the 28% gain in Asian equity markets is twice that of the S&P500. Likewise, shrugging off initial concerns after last year’s US election, most of the region’s currencies have appreciated handsomely [...]