7 August 2023 Africa has underperformed economically for a long time. Per capita GDP has risen less than 1% annually during the past 30 years (chart below); lagging all other emerging market regions during this period (although Latam has also slowed in the past decade). During this interval, meanwhile, output per person in the advanced [...]
25 June 2021 Despite US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's attempts to reassure investors, financial markets are concerned about inflation. Likewise, price growth has accelerated in key emerging market countries. In response, central banks in Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and Turkey have already begun to tighten monetary conditions. Is Emerging Market inflation temporary? That is, does it [...]
26 March 2021 President Erdogan's decision to sack Turkey's central bank governor Naci Agbal last week following the CBRT's decision to raise interest rates 200bp has increased volatility in EM currency markets. Is this just the latest episode of Turkish political intrigue? Alternatively, given both Brazil and Russia also lifted key rates, has a more [...]
13 November 2020 Three cheers for the world's scientific community! The recent announcement that an effective vaccine may be on the way is a very welcomed, early Christmas present at the end of a tough year. Of course, there are numerous medical questions and logistical challenges that still must be solved. But, along with everyone [...]