15 December 2017 Looking into 2018, one is is reminded of the old stock market admonition that "bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs are slaughtered". In other words, let's not be greedy: the returns of the past year are highly unlikely to be repeated. In an effort to free up your time … Continue reading 2018 Strategy in Pictures: Aging Rally or More to Play For?
2 December 2017 In a swanky Washington restaurant in 1974, economist Arthur Laffer presented Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld (future VP and US Secretary of Defence) a doodle on the back of a napkin. What appeared was a diagram of the now infamous “Laffer Curve”. The graph depicts the relationship between tax rates and tax … Continue reading US Tax Reform: Panacea or a Risk too Far?
20 November 2017 I returned recently from Kilkenny, Ireland where I attended Kilkenomics – an engaging mix of global finance and comedy sponsored by the FT and hosted by the irrepressible David MacWilliams. I often found myself thinking only the Irish could pull off this unlikely mix, but then I look at Twitter, and am … Continue reading Ireland:Tiger Tamed, But No Longer a PIIGS
President Trump will use his Asia trip to discuss America's swollen trade deficits with the region. Trade imbalances are caused by macro factors: America saves too little, Asia saves too much. This Chart, however, does indicate that America's penetration of some key Asian markets is far lower than their access to the US market. China … Continue reading Can Trump Pry Open Asian Markets?