In a blog six years ago, I suggested China's growth slowdown had just begun. I indicated the headwinds emanating from the property crisis, shrinking population, weak productivity growth, debt deleveraging, and the rebalancing towards consumer-led activity would slow China's long-term GDP growth potential towards 3.5% to 4%. In the interim, most investors and pundits have [...]
Can Europe Surprise? Only With Reforms
Is Europe in secular decline? If so, can it be halted? Since as recently as 1990, the region's share of global GDP has declined from 24% to 14%. Even compared to other advanced economies, Europe has lost ground. Indeed, since 2005 European GDP growth has trailed the USA by 0.7% annually (the gap is less [...]