22 January 2023 In addition, China's shrinking population will continue to shape both the nation's long-term economic strategy, and the government's short-term policy focus. In particular, with inflation low, monetary and fiscal policy will need to remain stimulative. However, government spending priorities will need to be altered dramatically. This shift will not only support China's … Continue reading China: Population Decline = Growth Headwind
2 November 2022 Indeed, Brazil's election result was historic. Not only was former President Lula da Silva returned to power (by an unexpectedly narrow margin), but Jair Bolsonaro's defeat was the first by an incumbent since the country returned to democracy. Despite earlier threats to challenge the election outcome, President Bolsonaro and his supporters appear … Continue reading Brazil: Lula II — Firebrand or Pragmatist?
28 October 2022 At China's recently concluded 20th Communist Party Congress, Xi Jinping was re-elected to an unprecedented third term as Party leader. Xi now appears set to lead both the Party and government for the next five years, and likely even longer. With political power now secured, can the same be said about the … Continue reading China: 2023 May Be Even Tougher than 2022
31 May 2022 In my March 2019 blog entitled "India: Long Growth Runway Still Lies Ahead", I suggested India may enjoy faster economic growth than all other large economies during the next decade, including China. The following Chart indicates the IMF now shares this appraisal, as India's long-term potential GDP exceeds all other countries (except … Continue reading India: Geopolitics, Climate, and Growth Risks